Prediction of the development prospect of the hott

2022-10-14
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Prediction of the development prospects of China's wind power industry during the 12th Five Year Plan period, China's new installed capacity of wind power has led the world for five consecutive years, with a cumulative increase of 98 million KW, accounting for 18% of the total new installed capacity in the country in the same period, and its proportion in the power structure has increased year by year. The development and construction of wind power in the Middle East and southern regions have achieved positive results. By the end of 2015, the combined installed capacity of wind power in China had reached 129 million KW, with an annual power generation of 186.3 billion kwh, accounting for 3.3% of the total power generation in China, an increase of 2.1 percentage points over 2010. Wind power has become the third largest power source in China after coal power and hydropower

according to the development goals of the 13th five year plan for wind power development, by the end of 2020, the cumulative combined installed capacity of wind power will be ensured to reach more than 210 million KW, of which the combined installed capacity of offshore wind power will reach more than 5 million KW; The annual power generation of wind power is guaranteed to reach 420billion kwh, accounting for about 6% of the total power generation in China

according to the data, there were about 60 wind turbine manufacturers in China in 2010, which has decreased to 22 by 2017, and it is expected to continue to decrease in the future. On the one hand, as the industry returns to the average profit or even below the average profit, some production capacity is destined to be eliminated. On the other hand, some enterprises have no possibility of continuous investment in product innovation, and will also be eliminated

despite the decline in new installed capacity of wind power and the reduction in the number of wind turbine manufacturers, the industry market concentration is rising. The data shows that in the past five years, the market share concentration trend of wind power machine manufacturing enterprises is obvious. The market share of newly installed capacity of the top five wind turbine manufacturers increased from 54.1% in 2013 to 67.1% in 2017, an increase of 13%; The market share of new additional installed capacity of the top ten wind power manufacturing enterprises increased from 77.8% in 2013 to 77.8% in 2017 to 89.5% in 2017, an increase of 12%

I. development history of offshore wind power

since 2007, China's offshore wind power has installed a Goldwind (gw70/1500) test prototype in the Bohai Bay; From 2009 to 2010, Longyuan Jiangsu Rudong intertidal test 32.5 MW wind farm was completed, and a total of 8 experimental prototypes were installed (Jinfeng gw90/2500, Sinovel sl3000/113, united power up, Mingyang my1.5s-82 and scd3, Shanghai Electric W, Yuanjing en-82/1.5, haizhuang h.0mw, Sany se9320iii-s3). In 2010, the Donghai Bridge 102 MW offshore wind farm (Sinovel sl3000/90) marked the completion of China's first truly offshore wind farm

from 2011 to 2013, Longyuan Rudong 150 MW offshore (intertidal) demonstration wind farm was completed, mainly from the batch installation of three enterprises (Goldwind gw109/2500, Siemens swt-.3, Sinovel sl3000/113). From 2014 to 2015, China's offshore wind power has improved significantly, and the wind turbines are mainly from Shanghai Electric (w3600m-/80 and swt-4.), In addition, there are Xiangdian (Xe) and Yuanjing (en-136/4.0). It can be seen that there are not many types of offshore wind turbines in China

by the end of 2015, among all the offshore wind turbines hoisted, the single unit capacity was 4MW, with the cumulative installed capacity reaching 352mw, accounting for 34.69% of the offshore installed capacity, followed by 2.5MW units, with the installed capacity accounting for 18.48%, 3MW installed capacity accounting for 17.74%, and the assembled capacity of other wind turbines with different powers accounting for less than 10%. At present, the largest single unit capacity is 6MW unit. In addition to the original products of United Power and Mingyang wind power, Goldwind technology installed a new 6MW unit in 2015

from the perspective of all offshore wind turbines hoisted in China at present, by the end of 2015, the cumulative installed capacity of direct drive offshore wind turbines with transmission system accounted for 17.3% of the total installed capacity of offshore wind turbines, and the proportion of offshore wind turbines with gear boxes reached 82.7%. In terms of generator classification, doubly fed asynchronous generators account for 41%, asynchronous generators account for 27%, permanent magnet synchronous generators account for 19%, and squirrel cage asynchronous full power wind turbines account for 13%

second, the development trend of offshore wind power

with the decline of development costs and the continuous expansion of installed capacity, China's wind power industry has developed from an optional supplementary role to a substitute role. In this new stage, the development of wind power and even new energy industry will no longer be scale oriented, and cost reduction and subsidy withdrawal will become the focus of wind power industry development in the next five years

among them, for the development of offshore wind power during the "13th five year plan", the National Bureau of spare energy specially proposed that the offshore wind power industry should never be matured and hoped that the whole industry could develop actively and steadily. It will further improve various policies and measures to support the development of offshore wind power, ensure that the support for offshore wind power will not be reduced, actively provide convenient conditions for enterprises to carry out project construction, further promote the simplification of administration and decentralization, and no longer prepare construction plans. We should not rush for success, including machine manufacturing, construction technology research and development and other fields, and gradually promote the progress of the technical level and cost reduction of the whole industrial chain

from the approval and construction of the Donghai Bridge offshore wind power project to now, the birth of offshore wind power in China has lasted for 8 years. Although it is regarded as a new energy investment outlet, a series of old stubborn diseases such as high cost still exist. Under the new wind, where should investors go

although China has made many achievements in the development of offshore wind power, it is still worrying on the whole. During the 12th Five Year Plan period, China's wind power industry as a whole achieved rapid development, with an installed capacity of 129 million KW. However, due to the constraints of natural environment, technology, quality, policy and other factors, the development of offshore wind power is still slow. By the end of 2015, the national offshore wind power capacity was only 750000 kW, which did not achieve the goal of the 12th Five Year Plan

as we all know, the high cost of offshore wind power is particularly detrimental to the development of the industry. Due to the special environment of offshore wind power, there are special requirements for wind turbine units, power transmission and transformation facilities, and operation and maintenance, resulting in both wind turbine equipment and operation and maintenance costs higher than the land price. Usually, the cost of offshore wind power projects is about twice that of onshore wind power. When the operating life of wind turbine is certain, the high input cost will naturally increase the power generation cost

on the other hand, the low electricity price is also a fundamental factor restricting the development of the industry

the notice on offshore wind power tariff policy (fgjg [2014] No. 1216) issued by the national development and Reform Commission in June 2014 set the tone for offshore wind power tariff. The notice stipulates that the electricity price of offshore wind power projects put into operation before 2017 (excluding 2017) is 0.85 yuan/kwh, and that of intertidal wind power projects is 0.75 yuan/kwh. However, at this level of electricity price, without local supporting policies, the income level of offshore wind power projects is difficult to guarantee

in addition, offshore wind power construction involves a series of problems that give full play to the effectiveness of measurement data, such as sea area functional zoning, navigation channels, submarine cables, environmental protection, and even national defense security, which requires careful review and control by multiple departments, resulting in slow project approval and construction progress. According to Qin Haiyan, Secretary General of the wind energy professional committee of the China Renewable Energy Society, under the current electricity price policy, there are few profitable offshore wind power projects, which is difficult to drive the investment enthusiasm of relevant enterprises

the changeable on-site environment is also one of the reasons for the slow progress of offshore wind power projects. Most of the offshore wind farms in China are in the area of alternating influence of marine climate and continental climate. These regions have large climate changes and are frequently affected by typhoons, rainstorms, tides, giant waves, etc., which are not conducive to offshore wind power construction. Therefore, the effective construction days in one year in the southeast coast of China are only about 150 days. This also leads to the extension of the construction period and the difficulty of maintenance of offshore wind farms, increasing the development cost

however, as the main body of the market, enterprises have a sharper sense of smell. Despite the heavy resistance, the progress of China's offshore wind power has not stopped. Since its start in 2009, today's major special projects and key research and development of China's offshore are the rapid development of tomorrow's core competitiveness wind power. At present, it has developed into the world's second offshore wind power market after Europe. In order to reduce costs, Chinese wind power enterprises are trying to innovate core construction technology and break through technical limitations

the development and construction technology of offshore wind farms, especially offshore wind farms, is still immature. It is necessary to carry out research and demonstration of key engineering technologies as soon as possible and explore offshore deep-sea wind farm technology according to China's wind farm construction planning and conditions. Including early concept research, simulation test, model test and real machine test. Offshore wind power project is a system engineering. Only through system technology innovation can the cost of the entire offshore wind power project be reduced. According to the research data of Bloomberg new energy finance, the capacity coefficient of offshore wind turbines will be improved by 20%, and the cost of kWh will be reduced by 16.7%; Capital expenditure or equity cost will decrease by 20%, and the cost of kWh will decrease by 12.4% or 10.7%

the development goal of offshore wind power proposed by the national energy administration is that by 2020, offshore wind power will be able to ensure and operate 5million kW, and strive to start 10million kW

III. installed capacity of offshore wind power

chart: China's installed capacity of offshore wind power in the first half of the year

calculated by the investment and development cost of offshore wind power of 14000 yuan/kw, combined with the estimated value of China's cumulative installed capacity of offshore wind power of 15.78gw in 2020, it is estimated that China's investment market space for offshore wind power construction will be about 180billion yuan by

in terms of hardware, offshore wind power projects are mainly composed of wind turbines, wind towers and pile foundations, and submarine cables. Among the total investment in offshore wind power, the investment in equipment such as complete machine, wind tower and submarine optical cable is about 50%. Based on the current average development investment cost of offshore wind power of 14000 yuan/kw, the annual offshore wind power market for complete machine manufacturers and peripheral component suppliers such as pile foundation and submarine optical cable is nearly 90billion yuan

v. analysis of regional development pattern

according to the 13th five year plan for wind power development, the construction scale of offshore wind power in China will reach 10GW by 2020, and strive to achieve a cumulative capacity of more than 5GW, focusing on promoting offshore wind power construction in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, Guangdong and other provinces

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