The most popular Tianjiao plummeted, causing a hug

2022-08-05
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Tianjiao plummeted, resulting in a huge backlog of spot ports

in this round of commodity "air crash", Shanghai natural rubber futures became the hardest hit area. In addition to the well-known factors of the financial crisis, insiders revealed that during the National Day holiday, large Zhejiang households participated in the large-scale short selling of rubber futures in Tokyo, Japan. In fact, after the National Day holiday, a large family in Zhejiang successfully carried out cross market arbitrage between China and Japan by making use of the rules of "strengthening the balance of the three boards in China"

"every chain in this industry is dripping blood." Lishiqiang, general manager of Sidong Rubber Co., Ltd., one of the largest rubber enterprises in Thailand, described the disaster brought to the whole industry by the collapse of natural rubber futures

as of October 15, Shanghai natural rubber futures fell by the limit again. After continuous decline, the Shanghai Rubber index has dropped from 19000 yuan per ton before the National Day holiday to 13000 yuan per ton, and it has not stopped

who is shorting rubber

production reduction: the sharp fall triggered industrial disaster

in this round of commodity "air crash", Shanghai natural rubber futures became the hardest hit area

in the two weeks after the national day, natural rubber contracts closed at the limit price almost every day. The continuous falling limit has caused the relevant rubber industries to fall into panic, chaos and stagnation, and the events of default continue to occur. On October 15, lishiqiang confirmed to us that some small and medium-sized customers had defaulted, and thousands of tons of cargoes were overstocked in Qingdao port due to the buyer's "abandonment". He worried that with the further decline of futures prices, there would be more large-scale defaults

for domestic rubber traders, the advance deposit for purchasing a ton of rubber is only 10%. However, in just a few days, the price of rubber futures fell by more than 30%. If the duration is short, powerful customers may be able to bear the loss, but it is almost a disaster for small and medium-sized customers

in order to avoid greater losses, lishiqiang disclosed that the company has decided to significantly reduce production to deal with the industry crisis. Shidong rubber was initially a small producer and exporter of natural rubber. Through years of expansion, Shidong rubber has become one of the largest companies in the global natural rubber industry

in addition to rubber enterprises, the farmers planting rubber suffer a lot. On October 16, Indonesia took emergency measures. The Minister of Agriculture announced that it would reduce the production of natural rubber by 30% to save the falling rubber price and protect its agriculture. At present, major rubber traders in Southeast Asia have stopped quoting to the Chinese market, and the international reputation of China's natural rubber industry is being seriously questioned

lishiqiang said that the sharp fall in the international and domestic rubber futures prices has endangered the survival of the whole industry. In the near future, a meeting of the alliance of rubber producing and marketing countries will be held to discuss the next steps. As for the situation that domestic customers continue to default, exporting countries may take retaliatory measures

the domestic situation is not optimistic. According to insiders, at present, domestic enterprises have a serious backlog of tires. The scene of queuing to buy tires has long been a thing of the past, and the demand for natural rubber has decreased significantly. In the past, Chinese demand has been an excuse for international buyers to speculate in natural rubber futures, which in turn will become a reason for shorting. Professionals predict that a large number of traders and even producers will close down due to the sharp fall in natural rubber prices

the automobile industry upstream of tires is also having a hard time. Under the influence of the financial crisis, the world automobile industry is entering an unprecedented shock wave, and automobile enterprises in Europe, the United States and Japan are "reducing production" one after another. Opel spokesman said recently that almost all European factories would be closed temporarily. Many subsidiaries of Volkswagen Group have also reduced the number of new car launches, and Skoda in the Czech Republic is facing production reduction. BMW announced that it would suspend the Leipzig factory business in the last week of October, and the assembly line would be shut down for four days, which meant a reduction of 2800 cars

a survey report shows that the joint venture projects of some multinational automobile enterprises in China have entered a state of stagnation. For example, the pending domestic projects of Renault, the cooperation projects between Fiat and Chery and other domestic enterprises, and even Toyota, which has been in rapid development, have announced to slow down the pace of production in China

short selling: large Japanese sellers in Zhejiang Province

in addition to the well-known financial crisis factors, what forces are driving the straight-line decline of natural rubber futures? According to insiders, during the National Day holiday, large Zhejiang households participated in the large-scale shorting of rubber futures in the Tokyo market of Japan

in fact, the Japanese rubber futures market has a great impact on China. During the National Day holiday, the Japanese rubber fell vertically, and its decline limit closed at 606.5, much larger than that in Shanghai market. From September 26 before the National Day holiday, the Japanese rubber index has dropped from 276 yen per kilogram to 161 yen in just a dozen transactions, a drop of 41%. The trend of this kind of collapse has directly put pressure on the Shanghai market. Although the continuous limit falls, it still can not catch up with the pace of the Tokyo market

according to insiders, the rubber market in Tokyo is relatively small, and domestic speculators have always participated in it. They take advantage of the time difference and price difference between the two markets to make profits. In fact, after the National Day holiday, a large family in Zhejiang successfully carried out cross market arbitrage between China and Japan by making use of the rules of "strengthening the balance of the three boards in China". "They bought many orders near the limit of the domestic market and emptied in the Japanese market at the same time. In the subsequent trading days, many domestic orders were directly closed due to the strong balance of the three boards, while Japan's empty orders continued to be retained and made huge profits."

there are more radical speculators who are short in both domestic and Japanese markets at the same time. They make use of the time advantage of the Japanese market to form price guidance for the domestic market and obtain huge profits

from the perspective of positions, Zhejiang funds became the absolute main force in the decline of rubber futures in Shanghai market. Before the National Day holiday, Zhejiang Yong'an and other Zhejiang Department funds once forced the position of natural rubber 809 contract at a high level, and finally took over a large number of spot goods at a high level of more than 20000 yuan. In order to reduce losses, the institution sold a large number of futures seats such as Zhejiang Yong'an, Zhejiang Xinhua and Zhejiang Dadi, and there were a large number of sales for the 901 contract. These selling prices have formed the most important short selling force in the domestic market. According to our calculation, the selling price once reached more than 50000 tons during the peak period

question: beware of speculation by state-owned enterprises

"in the natural rubber futures disaster, the behavior of state-owned enterprises needs to be reflected." Wangweibo, deputy general manager of Shanghai Dayin investment management company, has many years of experience in rubber futures spot. He believes that Yunnan Nongken and other state-owned enterprises also bear the same responsibility in this rubber futures disaster

in August this year, Zhejiang Department of Finance launched a fierce position squeeze on the 09 contract of rubber 8 due to the low risk of establishing a recycled plastic particle factory. The price of the 809 rubber contract, which is close to the month when the export volume is depressed, is high, reaching more than 27000 yuan, thousands of yuan more than other contracts. The high price difference is accompanied by high positions that exceed the average level and can also be manually intervened in the analysis process. Zhejiang bulls force short sellers to admit defeat through continuous buying

it is reported in the market that Zhejiang capital has formed an interest alliance with state-owned spot enterprises in the process of closing positions. Although the news has not been confirmed, at the same time of closing the position, Yunnan Agricultural Reclamation and other spot traders did have the behavior of being reluctant to sell at a high price. Objectively, the high spot price cooperated with the action of Zhejiang capital. Yunnan agricultural reclamation has also repeatedly appeared in the long position ranking of 811 and 901 contracts

wangweibo said that the spot of domestic No. 5 standard glue is basically controlled by Hainan agricultural reclamation and other spot dealers. The spot dealers may misjudge the price trend, resulting in high prices and reluctance to sell, creating the illusion of insufficient inventory to the outside world. If, at that time, the spot dealer reduced the price, the inventory pressure would be much less now. "According to the principle of arbitrage, as an enterprise producing natural rubber, in principle, it should only be short, and long will bring great speculative risks"

in fact, in other varieties of commodity futures, such as electrolytic copper, PTA and other fields, state-owned production enterprises have also become long, and some enterprises have also suffered huge losses in the commodity crisis

this abnormal phenomenon has attracted great attention of regulators. On October 15, the CSRC station announced that state-owned enterprises are not allowed to engage in futures speculation. According to the information disclosure, on October 10, the CSRC convened relevant principals of 25 state-owned enterprises that have obtained overseas futures hedging business licenses to have a discussion in Shanghai and make urgent arrangements to strengthen enterprise risk control. Jiang Yang, assistant chairman of the CSRC, stressed at the symposium that state-owned enterprises can only engage in hedging in the futures market and shall not speculate

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